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Only two days prior to the NYC race for mayor, Michael Lange made a significant electoral prediction – not just the winner overall, and block by block. Lange, a political analyst born and raised in New York City, has spent more than ten years in progressive politics and has become a kind of well-known figure recently for his thorough analyses into city data and voter surveys.

He published his highly detailed prediction map – which correctly forecast that Zohran Mamdani was victorious although failed to predict Andrew Cuomo’s solid showing – on his Substack, the Narrative War. He possesses a talent for witty coinages. He highlighted, as an example, the divide between the progressive stronghold, running from Park Slope to Bushwick to Astoria, where he predicted (accurately) that Mamdani would triumph by huge margins, and the conservative-leaning zone on affluent parts of Manhattan. In those areas, certain media outlets and financial newspapers surpass the mainstream paper” in readership and most voters leaned toward Cuomo, who ran as a conservative-courting independent.

Voting Day Trends and Surprises

How was your election night?

I had to do that since they were adding around 200,000 ballots into the tally frequently! I was actually a little nervous initially: The candidate was ahead the initial ballots by 12 points, but there were large groups of votes that came in after that and the advantage dropped from 12% to 8%. I was worried.

Understand, it was possible where yesterday turned out kind of poorly for Mamdani, where Cuomo was going to end up essentially increasing his support from the earlier contest. But Mamdani gained half a million supporters to his initial base, and this was critical why he won. He went out and greatly broadened his base from the primary.

Expanding Support

How did the mayor-elect get those extra votes from?

He built the alliance that the left always wanted to build: it’s multiracial, youthful, it’s renters and it’s people facing cost pressures. He improved considerably with minority communities, working- and middle-class voters, relative to the primary. Plus he further maximized his core of left-leaning activists, youthful radicals, and immigrant groups. He couldn’t have won without making those significant inroads.

He built the coalition that progressives always wanted to build: diverse, young, tenants and residents squeezed by affordability

There were also some supporters of both candidates – is this significant?

It’s definitely a genuine phenomenon, limited to Hispanic laborers, south Asians and Islamic voters. Electors in immigrant strongholds that supported the former president last year went for Zohran now. However I wouldn’t say he was winning over Caucasian laborers and Maga voters.

Turnout and Effects

One of the big stories of the night was the sky-high participation. Who benefited?

Both sides. Turnout was significantly higher than anticipated. I figured it could go over 2 million, but it reached 2.3 million – which is a huge number of participants. There was a decent opposition group, who were motivated, but the Mamdani base was also motivated, and that was enough to win.

You forecasted he’d get over half the ballots. Is he likely for that?

Right now it appears he’s favored to get over 50%. He’s at 50.4% but remain around 200,000 votes left to report at that time. Thus it’s not it’s definitive, but I think probable, and I hope he achieves it because then no one can say Sliwa was a spoiler.

Republican Collapse

The GOP candidate, the Republican candidate, is the other big story. His vote completely collapsed.

He didn’t win any district in any area. Including Tottenville in the borough, similar to an 88% Trump area. That truly was unexpected. Cuomo held Caucasian districts, very wealthy areas and very religiously Jewish areas, and plus gained all of these Republicans on the island who had a high participation. I believe occurred a lot of tactical voting by the Republicans. This happened prior to the former president endorsed for Cuomo, but that definitely helped. It might have changed the outcome if the winning alliance failed to expand.

The “Commie Corridor”

What about your often-discussed “commie corridor” – was support for the candidate dominant in those areas of the boroughs?

I think existed a little dilution of the commie corridor in certain places like Astoria or Greenpoint that have more older white ethnic folks. There, for example, the Greek landlords and homeowners supported the independent. Thus there existed a little resistance. But no, mostly the commie corridor is a key factor why Mamdani prevailed – he was polling between 77% and 83% in specific neighborhoods.

Community Support

Prior to the vote there was coverage on whether Mamdani was gaining ground with the community. Is there any suggestion that he did?

Exist neighborhoods with many secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – such as Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he performed strongly. However in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Manhattan area, his Middle East stance was influential there. Likewise in the more middle-class Jewish areas like Queens neighborhoods, or Bronx areas – they favored the independent. Plus, there are newcomers from Eastern Europe in the borough, who were strongly Cuomo. Therefore I don’t know if there were major surprises here, but he did hold more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and even parts of the Upper West Side with large leads.

Political Impact

Did Mamdani redefine what the city represents in politics? Will progressive base become a launch pad for progressive contenders?

Yes, it’s not accidental that some of the biggest figures from the left come from a few areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I believe that there will be more of that – people will come from these areas to be elevated nationally.

But I believe that each urban center in America can have similar progressive hubs. Urban places are the epicenters of leftwing power in the nation – because youth reside there, tenancy is common and they represent locales where people are crushed by the disparities we face.