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Breaking into the planet's most popular art institution in broad daylight, grabbing eight pieces of priceless Napoleonic jewellery and disappearing into the city traffic on simple scooters may seem like the most audacious of crimes, executed for international notoriety and subsequent Hollywood film treatments.

Experts who observe trends in global cultural theft, however, see the recent heist at the Louvre as something more prosaic: the latest in a string of quick-hit thefts focused more on the monetary worth of valuable gems or metals than the artifacts’ significance, perpetuating a pattern that has appeared over the last ten years in Germany, Britain and the US. The location, they propose, would have been of secondary concern to the criminals.

“You may ask why criminals who want to take expensive jewellery are breaking into a world-famous museum rather than a luxury jewelry store,” said an expert in art recovery. “The answer is simple: it’s because nowadays a Cartier store is better protected.”

A series of violent jewellery shop thefts indicate that many outlets have strengthened their security in the past few years, with security personnel on their premises and wares no longer shown overnight. Cultural institutions, meanwhile, look more exposed, in part because of the inherent reason of being public-facing institutions in older structures, and partly the financial situation in many developed nations.

“After the pandemic, governments across the globe have cut back on police and the arts funding,” said Marinello. “If thieves can get into the Louvre, it demonstrates how at risk our institutions have become. This is a horrible time to be a museum.”

The robbery of the items – including necklaces made up of eight sapphires and hundreds of gems, the tiara of Empress Eugénie featuring nearly 2,000 diamonds and a extremely expensive diadem once owned by a royal that the robbers left by the street on their way out – has naturally been compared with the historical theft of the famous painting from the Louvre, performed by the Italian handyman Vincenzo Peruggia.

More relevant comparisons may be the 2019 burglary of valuables from Dresden’s Green Vault Museum worth over €113m, the taking of a £4.75m gold toilet from Blenheim Palace the same year, the 2017 heist of a valuable item from Berlin’s Bode Museum or even a series of thefts of sports memorabilia from US mining museums.

“It's a clear trend here,” said Marinello. “Break in, take items, and dismantle them as quickly as possible.”

If the artefacts were to stay whole, experts say, the criminals would struggle to sell them. “There’s no way to trade something as recognizable as the museum's gems on the licit market”, commented Lynda Albertson of the a relevant organization.

“They are too well-known, particularly given the Ministry of Culture has released images of the items. Even a individual buyer or an sales venue would want to see paperwork establishing proper ownership before touching such remarkable pieces.”

In the past, museums were often hesitant to go public about the disappearance of famous art pieces and would remain quiet out of shame. Now, as cultural robberies are more reported on, the keeping and sale of stolen art is dangerous for any lawbreaker.

“Taking a Picasso, it has to remain intact or it becomes worthless, and you have to devise a scheme to conceal it, perhaps by moving it among dangerous individuals,” noted Marinello. “There's ongoing risk to the risk of an partner telling the police to collect a ransom.”

For comparable factors, an art detective said it was vanishingly unlikely that the theft had been commissioned. “Commissioned theft is something from Hollywood movies,” he said. “Nobody would touch this. It's global news and in all the media. If you acquire these, if you get caught, you go to jail. You can't display it to your friends, you cannot leave it to your family.”

Altering stolen works by melting down or re-cutting does lower the value. When it comes to diamonds, it also comes with considerable risk because contemporary cutting techniques give stones a larger and lighter surface area, and older-style stones would either draw unwanted attention or reduce value for a coverup.

Crucially, however, melting down or re-cutting eliminates the evidence of the theft. “My guess is that the robbers will try to bring the stolen goods to places with diamond expertise like Israel, another nation or even as close as Antwerp, and find someone to cut out the gems,” said Marinello.

The robbery at the Louvre has already brought up concerns about security measures at the museum, with a leaked state auditor report expected to be released next month pointing out “significant” and “persistent” delays in modernizing systems and noting that security cameras were missing in multiple areas. But security experts say displaying precious items in older structures with a steady stream of visitors comes with risks that are not possible to eliminate completely.

“Older structures are much harder to secure,” explained Erin Thompson. “Many of them have large accessible windows that allows for thieves to escape, and there may be building protection statutes in place that mean you are unable to install them with proper bulletproof glass.”

The most solid protective measures for structures should be designed “as a stronghold”, said a security advisor. “It should include multiple levels to repel intruders.”

Modern buildings are fitted with advanced external CCTV cameras or integrated seismic detectors that alert about a broken glass in immediately, but old museums may be hesitant to uglify their appearance. Detection devices can be difficult to fit to stuccoed ceilings. Sensors may also have to be turned off during the day as crowds stomp through a museum.

The schedule of the robbery, which took place between 9.30am and 9.40am in Paris, was typical of recent thefts, Stürmann said. “There’s a good reason why robberies tend to happen at either opening or closing times. It’s often when security rotate and before the museum is crowded who actually act as additional security staff.”

Technological progress may have introduced new gadgets that can notify more quickly and effectively, but it has also provided robbers new methods with which to circumvent protections. In the city, the thieves reached the museum’s upper level with a vehicle-mounted ladder and breached a glass pane with a electric tool.

Elaine Sciolino said the discussion in France about the historic structure had primarily focused on visitor management in the past decade, and less on security.

The museum has an on-site team of about 50 permanent firefighters, but their mission is mostly to protect the artworks from fires and water damage. “There is no rapid-response unit,” Sciolino said. “In the end, the safety of the Louvre all comes down to political will and money, and at present the nation lacks sufficient money.”